Hvordan skape vekst? : Kan steder påvirke sin egen vekst? Regional utvikling, sentralitet og attraktivitet

Abstract

Some places experience population growth and increasing job opportunities, while others undergo a decline in population and the number of workplaces. What are the driving forces behind the developments we have seen in municipalities and regions in Norway since 2000?

A large part of the regional growth patterns in Norway can be explained by structural conditions. Differences in each area’s centrality, business structure and demographics can explain much of the disparity in growth that we have seen in the last twenty years. In this book, we present the regional growth model we have developed, the attractiveness model, which can explain how areas have evolved and predict future population development. The population projections from this model differ greatly from those of Statistics Norway (SSB) for many municipalities, especially in rural areas. If we are correct, population development in these areas will be significantly weaker than Statistics Norway’s projections, which serve as a basis for regional policy. Some municipalities have achieved higher growth than predicted by the model, either as a result of greater increases in new residents or stronger job growth in the local business sector. Such municipalities have been attractive for business and residence, and achieved stronger growth than the structural conditions would otherwise suggest. The vast majority of municipalities want to stimulate their own population development in order to offset aging and decline in the number of children in their kindergartens and schools. In the book, we highlight many examples of such municipalities that have managed to grow more than usual.